Modeling of the Microsoft Stock Prices Using Machine Learning and Classical Models: Identification of Optimal Model for Application
Keywords:
Machine learning models, Traditional time series models, Stock prices, Support zone, Resistance zoneAbstract
In this study, Microsoft stock price was modeled using two traditional time series models and two machine learning models for reliable predictions of the future behavior of the stock prices and more gainful investment. Model metrics such as AIC, BIC, Log-likelihood, RMSE, and confidence set test were the basis for comparison of the models. The results showed that the GARCH model outperformed the ARIMA and Support Vector Regression models while the Long Short-Time Memory –Recurrent model outperformed the GARCH model. Forecasts from the Long Short-Time Memory were made and found to be highly reliable. The results of the forecast also showed an uptrend movement up to a price of around $275 from November 2023 to January 2024. In conclusion, the LSTM-RNN is capable of accurately tracking and forecasting movements of volatile stock prices and is preferred over the other models considered in this study.
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